Guns’ control is a hot and endless debate in the United States of America while Americans continue to suffer while violence leads to countless victims. The debate turns around reviewing the Second Amendment of the America’s Constitution while preserving people’s rights to keep and bear arms for their own protection. The debate faces a huge lobby opposing the control of guns, though being currently challenged by the mounting extremism and terrorism all around the world. The debate experiences also the revival of racism and unfortunate mistrust between black-white. However, lobbyists still find ways-convictions to have the debate going on and on. This is a US choice framed within democratic institutions with performing security Services. Think about it in different context!
While a friend of mine was telling us a story of the former Zairean Army Forces (Forces Armées Zairoises “FAZ”), I thought the debate would have taken a deep shape to understand the difference of the Mobutu’s era and what’s going on now. The scope would have allowed a discussion on what can be done to end such doings. In a joking—monopolized way, the orator reminds a man who suddenly come across these former security forces during the Mobutu’s regime. The FAZ behaved through what can be summarized as Predatory-Jungle mood or system if you want. The awkwardly behavior was so rude in these remote areas such as my village. Keep it simple that #MyVillage represents all these areas where government officials were God’s substitutes. This is another hot debate keeps coming while we would rather be looking at what can currently be done in terms of reforming our Security Services to meet professionalism capabilities.
Child Soldiers and widespread of firearms
By suddenly meeting the FAZ, the man had no choice to run away as it used to be. Then, he thought that he can be saved by proving the ever-existed infirmity. He decides to pull his arms to show the disability so that these soldiers would have compassion and let him go. The blogger guesses that through experiences, FAZ soldiers would have met such civilians’ responses in front of frightened context. It was during a short discussion, as told by the friend, that one of these soldiers asked “gently” how the arm was before it fell into disability. Unconsciously, the man pulled back the arm and said “before it was like this and then it becomes as you find me”. Look at it in angle of an embarrassing responses dealing with unexpected events and how it can entrap us from our own actions.
The story we’ve told ended in a laughing context as we did not have an occasion to ask questions or debate on what was that. We do simply circumvent by calling them “Katanyama” and that say a lot for saying nothing. What can we draw from that story that might have taken place? Can we see individuals’ responsibility overwhelming that of the system? I always feel that the Mobutu’s regime was the bad one though we need to see if things have really changed as expected or if we have done the necessary to solve these ‘drawbacks’. Though the socio-political context during Mobutu’s regime required getting a change, the use of guns had slightly led to innocent people’s killings. On the other hand, it was unlike to find civilians playing with guns as if it’s a toolkit for babies and children in nursey school. Holding a gun was a prohibited thing that you could of course pay for in case you were caught in; this must be one of the parameter impacting what we are facing nowadays.
In a nutshell, the blogger concerns with the inherited history of the colonial and Mobutu’s regime, adding up the socio-political context of violence in which we’ve been passing through. Consequently, he brings forward few foods for thought. The first one questions the professionalism of the security services institutions that can impartially help them to perform their primary missions. The recruitment of security servicemen must be well selective and putting in place mechanisms that can enhance the future professionalism prospect. Secondly, there is an emergency of re-establishing mechanisms that can widely control the use of firearms within the hands of people who haven’t ever been trained for. It’s even worthwhile to initiate the control with an environment that helps the ban of guns through supporting the bring-back firearms form civilians. Enough is enough to have people being killed for a matter that can be solved by paying just a goat or something less valued. As the State authority is yet enforced, revenge has taken lives of countless innocent people.
Thirdly, sustainably solving most of problems that faces the country has to firmly stand up to see the truth in front of us. That simply tries to mean that there are countless victims of these wrong-doing where grievances have become long-seated into people’s minds. It’s possible that in every hour the country loses sons/daughters because of the widespread of guns all around the country. The reader recalls the fragile sociopolitical context characterizing the Eastern part of DRC and the way it continues to engulf its recover. Therefore, the article calls upon leaders’ responsibility to work on all these challenges that have been adding victims to victims, victims to millions who lost their lives into decades of violence. Those interested in elections have to convince on alternatives than fighting to envy these top positions.
La crise Burundaise date déjà d’une année durant. Pendant toute cette période, elle a causé de multiples dégâts tant humains que matériels. Le nombre de morts s’élève aux environs de centaines de milliers de personnes, dont la majorité serait des personnes innocentes. Le grand nombre de ces dernières ne s’attendaient pas que les contestations contre le troisième mandat de Pierre Nkurunziza arrive au point de réengendrer encore une fois de rebellions. Au vu de l’expérience du passé, il me parait que le Burundais aiment bien la liberté, défendre leurs droits mais ils ne peuvent pas tous s’accorder que cela passe par la voie de faire couler encore de sang.
La crise qui s’assimilait dans le temps à une interprétation du texte constitutionnel, elle a pris une autre ampleur qui a impliqué un coup d’Etat militaire ainsi qu’une possible rébellion en gestation. Les efforts de médiation et du dialogue conduit par l’Uganda semblent aussi trainer le pas. Au même moment, les pertes en vie humaines ne cessent de s’alourdir et la crise est loin de prendre fin dans le bref délai car elle opposerait en coulisse les puissances régionales.
La proximité de deux pays, Burundi—RDC ainsi qu’un certain « parallélisme » tout autour d’organisation d’élections mais aussi les questions liées au troisième mandat, laisserait croire que ce dernier aurait activement été impliqué dans cette crise. Malgré des soupçons d’implication des pays voisins qui, semble-t-il, alimentent une nouvelle rébellion pour forcer le président Pierre Nkurunziza d’abandonner le pouvoir ; la position de la RDC dans le dénouement de cette crise se fait difficilement voir. Alors qu’elle aurait été déterminante, cette position est probablement liée au fait que ce géant t reste encore dormant sur des questions régionales.
Il peut paraitre que la RDC ne veut pas se mêler dans une affaire, qui au départ, était perçue comme Burundo-Burundaise ; c’est-à-dire, une question à résoudre à l’interne. Là, le pays du Raïs Joseph Kabila est mieux connu pour sa position de ne pas s’ingérer dans les affaires de pays voisins. L’expérience d’agression ainsi que les conséquences d’ingérence qu’ait traversées l’ancien Zaïre de la part des voisins auraient fait que la RDC ait résolu de ne pas imiter cette pratique « malsaine ». Cette politique est tout de même une meilleure attitude pour la stabilité de la région ; mais, elle serait en plus liée aux capacités que ce géant dormant fasse le choix entre disperser ses forces dans la stabilisation intérieure et le celui d’intervenir dans les affaires externes.
A en croire, la crise Burundaise ait toutefois eu comme conséquences l’existence des refugiés sur le territoire congolais. Du cote congolais, cette crise est actuellement suivie ces dernières semaines car certains mouvements de personnes dites « infiltrés » traverseraient le sud du Sud-Kivu, notamment la Zone d’Uvira vers le Burundi. L’objet de ces infiltrés serait de déstabiliser le Burundi par l’usage de force et des armes. L’existence d’infiltrés exprime un signal qui ferait que la RDC puisse s’intéresser de plus en plus sur la crise Burundaise. Même si ce le géant dormant peut ne pas s’impliquer activement—négativement dans cette crise comme le font ces pays soupçonnés d’entrainer les rebelles, il peut quand même prévenir que notre territoire soit un dépotoir de rebelles ayant pour mission d’attaquer un pays voisin ; et cela indépendamment du choix souverain du pays.
D’une manière particulière, le fait que les rebelles aient été entrainés dans la région, au cas où cela s’avérait vrai, pour un lecteur mieux informé, cet entrainement ne rassure certainement pas la RDC. Durant une période cruciale et volatile en rapport avec les élections en RDC, une solution armée au Burundi serait un mauvais antécédent pour le premier. Le monde est témoin d’atrocités qu’a connu l’Est du Congo ces dernières décennies de façon que laisse la RDC sombre encore une fois dans un tel climat, serait une lâcheté. Comme les politiques dans le contexte comme Rd congolais où la recherche d’accéder au pouvoir n’hésiterait pas d’user tous les moyens possibles, on s’attendrait à ceux-là qui pourront penser à l’usage de force. Dans ce cas, l’Est du Congo, mais surtout la frontière Burundi-Rwanda-RDC est parmi celles ayant plus d’ingrédients pour son déclenchement.
Pour ce faire, le géant dormant ne doit jamais croiser les mains comme si cela n’entrait pas dans son rayon d’action et de sa survie. Que le géant dormant ne s’implique pas négativement dans l’affaire Burundaise, mais il doit veiller qu’une solution armée, manipulée dans la région et plus spécifiquement une rébellion ne puisse être la solution à la crise Burundaise. En l’entendement du bloggeur, la RDC a plus intérêt que la crise Burundaise se résolve politiquement et le dialogue. La RDC doit user de son poids diplomatique ; et au besoin contraindre par tous les moyens possibles, que l’usage de la force/violence ne soit pas un moyen d’alternance dans la région, plus particulièrement au Burundi. La raison est plus claire, la prise du pouvoir par la force au Burundi, dans un contexte de manipulation externe ne serait qu’une brèche par laquelle l’Est du Congo peut encore une fois sombrer dans le chaos.
En dehors de débats sur les crises-actualités régionales et internes, le bloggeur vous souhaite une meilleure année 2016. Qu’elle soit pour nous une année de préserver les acquis de paix et de stabilité pour la région, la RDC en particulier ; mais aussi une année où les souhaits de réduire la pauvreté et l’inégalité, une répartition équitable des richesses nationales soient entendus par nos dirigeants.
It was so impressing to join the world bloggers discussing inequality, the #BAD2014, #Bad14#BlogAction14, #inequality. The topic is of concern at Eastern DRC, Reconciliation & Development Forum due to the blogger’s first-hand experience of what inequality is. I do simply find it as irreparable losses, though the blogger still struggles to find out who has benefited from it. To put it clear, the content of the article focuses mainly on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and how can inequality be perceived in the specific context. In this article, inequality is closely discussed as the income inequality because the latter looks as easier to measure; though inequality can take different dimensions. A specific feature of the article is that it boldly underscores my responsibility as well as that of rulers on the second level.
Though inequality and poverty are closely related, most societies around the world face the challenge to get people equally treated. I am not sure of what comes first between inequality and poverty, but largely it may sound that the former tends to create the latter. The assumption may still be debatable, but it draws the argument from E. Wayne Nafziger. In his analysis, Nafziger states that “most income inequality is due to people differing in their ability to perceive and utilize economic opportunities”[1]. In his views, the key question is about equality of opportunities but it is not the outcome that matters.
From America, Europe, Asia to Africa, inequality remains an issue that requires attention from policy-makers. There is even a possibility that even advanced economies may widely be still suffering from inequality as do less advanced ones. The wide discrepancy within the developed societies is the proportion/share of those detaining productive assets. Though unfortunate, recent findings have proven that 10% of the world richest keep more than 80% of world assets. At the same time, the wealthiest first top percentage has in its hand around 50% of the world assets. The same situation of small percentage controlling large assets is even found in US, though the country is known for having a huge annual per capita income ranging around $38,000. In any case, despite the way resources are distributed, redistributed as well as equal opportunities, inequality needs to be honestly discussed.
Despite the level of inequality, most industrialized societies are likely considered as proportionately equal. These societies are likely to consider the minimum standard-living of its citizens through mechanisms aiming at supporting the weaker. The fact is, among the top 10 unequal societies, most of these are from the developing countries. Based on Gini[2] coefficient, the top 10[3] countries are: Namibia (Gini 70.7), South Africa (Gini 65.0), Lesotho (Gini 63.2), Botswana (Gini 63.0), Sierra Leone (Gini 62.9), Central African Republic (Gini 61.3), Haiti (Gini 59.2), Colombia (Gini 58.5), Bolivia (Gini 58.2), and Honduras (Gini 57.7). Thus, a first glance leads to generally suspect that reasons behind poverty are likely the ones explaining the level of inequality. That is, the way resources are accessed, monopolized as well as weak institutions can be finger-pointed as being the source of poverty on one hand; and inequality on the other. What about the case of interest of this article?
In the practical case of DRC, despite lack of regular statistics, the 2006 DRC’s Gini Coefficient was roughly estimated around 44.4; quite alarming as does that of US. However, it appears that inequality might unlikely concern the society as poverty does. Nonetheless, both aspects are intertwined and largely related to illegal accumulation of national resources from those who would rather have the responsibility of creating conducive environment. As the accumulation of resources, into the hands of small group of people has widened poverty; hence it has been enlarging inequality. Thus, it falls into a vicious circle of illegal accumulation of resources, inequality, poverty, inequality…
Few characteristics can explain how inequality and poverty in DRC must concern the world and specifically the Congolese society. With unreliable statistics as the state went absent for decades, it is believed that 70% of the 75 million Congolese population live below the poverty line. That is, 52.5 million live on daily basis with $0.82 per day. By common sense, it is easier to guess who detains the large share of national resources. Whatever economics lessons, accounting and rationality principles that you could have mastered, the daily amount must fall short of the daily needs. And what strikes is that resources are not scarce as you can imagine; rather, the problem originates from the allocation of national resources into individual businesses. Obviously, the potential rich country, with all kinds of natural resources wouldn’t have people who accumulate, through rent-seeking, millions of millions of dollars on the detriment of ordinary citizens.
Road infrastructures
On the other hand, discrepancies are wide between the rural compared to urban areas. It is possible to find at least in large cities health facilities, education infrastructures access to water (roughly between 8-14% in rural areas, depending on estimation) and electricity. Unfortunately, access to electricity in rural areas is around 1% for a population estimated to 53 million. That is, roughly 87,500 out of 9 million households that can access electricity while the country has a potential giant reservoir of energy; among the first in world. Subsequently, opportunities that may come along with electricity into villages can no longer be accessed. Hence, rural population has to find on the way how to deal with these challenges that hamper their expansion; while harming sustainably their future.
In rural areas, decent housing, education infrastructures, health facilities, access to water have become a dream as if you think to join National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the sky. Just imagine the school for your children or the one you used to attend and what type of health facilities in which you may get treated. Then take a time to compare it with these facilities below. Do you think can someone be competitive while coming from these socio-economic conditions? Beyond these aspects discussed above, inequality/poverty in DRC is widely gender based. Whatever possibilities are, men and women are unequally served not only because the society do not pay attention to gender equality, rather because it is a hard fight requiring strength. Therefore, the ‘physically discriminated’ or weak if agreed, cannot simply afford the struggle.
Health Facility
It remains hard to name-pointing those who benefited from the victimization of these innocent people. Nevertheless, it is generally agreed that embezzlement, corruption… are channels from which rules can be held responsible of these disarrays. But there is another side of the coin. When considering my individual journey, I tend to agree that I have been responsible too by keeping quiet in front of these muddles. Don’t boggle your mind please. I currently think that I would have done much better to save this situation that has victimized and still victimizing millions of ordinary citizens. I’m sure, it would have taken long to have these “lazy-irresponsible” people understanding that it’s our right to live as they do, but the end would inevitably be that. Consequently, claiming these rights has to be a daily struggle and wish I could keep watching what they are daily doing to have our resources well managed.
There are many reasons that the article stresses rather on my responsibility. The reader will unlikely disagree that all rights necessitate hard struggle to get them respected. Specifically, history has shown experience of how long it took to have them rehabilitated throughout America, Europe, South-Africa; and what have been their results. The struggle of today may not solve at once all existing problems, but at least it leads to the acceptance and recognition of equal treatment before the law and access to resources. Even though it would take time, the rest will be a question of adaptation to competition as long as those yet reluctant are getting convinced. Thus, whenever I failed to fight for my rights, it gives these lazy guys another room to accumulate the remaining.
A practical example can illustrate the above viewpoint of the necessity of struggling for my rights. The argument has been drawn from Americans electing a first African-American in the white house. Thomas Borstelman expresses in his book that Americans by electing an African-American, “it did not mean that racial discrimination and prejudice [to African-Americans] had disappeared. It certainly did not mean that black economic disadvantage has ended. But the election did mark a level of acceptance of blacks in position of authority that would have seemed nearly unimaginable a generation earlier”[4]. Borsteleman adds that the ‘marking point’ expresses that even “conservatives agreed result as evidence of striking degree of equality in American public life and opportunities”.
School in rural DRC
The reader may consider the illustration of African-American in the white house as slightly fitting the discussion above. However, the lesson that the blogger has kept is the long struggle that went fought to reach this point. From Martin Luther King to what happened all along till 2008 was a long struggle but the end tend to show that we all can be the same if the environment and opportunities are likely the same. Since I kept quiet in front of these messes, I’ve realized that I am the first person to be blamed about what is happening right now.
On the other hand, there is a need to think about my responsibility by analyzing Joseph E. Stigltiz point of views. In Price of Inequality, he states that “we are paying a high price for our large and growing inequality and because our inequality is likely to continue to grow ―unless we do something ― the price we pay is likely to grow too” and those in the middle and at the bottom will pay the highest price but also the society as whole”. He definitely revealed that “widely unequal societies do not function efficiently, and their economies are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run”[5]. By deduction, Stigltiz is predicting a worse future if nothing is done to fight against inequality around the world. Thus, by combating inequality, there is hope that the world may get rid of poverty too as the former seems widening the latter.
In a nutshell, it sounds that when keeping quiet and crossing fingers expecting that things will go well may finally be a ‘coward’ attitude. So long as rulers cannot reasonably consider that rights to get equally treated as theirs are worth of esteem, they have at least to know that I’ve been weak but not blind. Don’t bring again a gun to support the struggle as it starts once by destroying, rather join by voicing and calling that they have to stop embezzling our resources as they belong to public not to their individuals families. Do you have other options of how to claim these rights?
[1] Nafziger, E. Wayne (1988) Inequality in Africa: Political Elites, Proletariat, Peasants and the Poor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
[2] Gini Coefficient:The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x% of the population (see diagram). The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve (marked A in the diagram) over the total area under the line of equality (marked A and B in the diagram); i.e., G = A / (A + B).
The United Kingdom (UK) comprises 4 states/countries forming what is commonly known Great Britain or the UK of Great Britain. These countries are England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. These countries forming the UK are respectively large as follows: England (130.395 Km2); Scotland (78.772 Km2); Wales (20.779 Km2) and Northern Ireland (13.843 Km2); that is in total 243.789 Km2. The total area of UK makes the Kingdom to occupy the 78th place worldwide largest state; while it is the 11th position in Europe. The 2014 statistics reveals that UK is also the world 21st in terms of yearly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita ranging around $38,711. Its DGP/Capita is approximately 120 times larger than that of an ordinary Congolese. Moreover, the UK is inhabited by roughly 64 million of population.
One of the countries forming the UK has held a referendum on 18th September 2014 aiming to get detached from the Kingdom. That is simply, Scottish would have been independent if YES had won the referendum. Though these countries have an important degree of autonomy over their management, voices can still mount to get as much as large sovereignty as do other independent countries. The degree of autonomy in UK countries is called devolution allowing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to have their own executive and parliamentary bodies under the responsibility of the Kingdom. In other words, the UK government and Parliament have much to decide on the economic and political issues regarding the UK.
The Scottish referendum was closely watched by different regions in Europe as well as in other continents wishing the same to happen to their regions (countries). Though it would have been unfortunate to see the UK splitting into small parties, voices of those claiming independence have at least been heard as the referendum went organized. On one hand, ‘civilized culture’ doesn’t need to resort always on guns to get aired. On the other hand, those to whom claims were addressed couldn’t stick on their position. Therefore, leaders must allow people to express freely their feelings and aspirations. What has kept the attention of this article is the quick response of the UK Prime Minister towards the Scottish demand. By choosing unity, there is yet another side of people willing to see their own affairs well managed into their own hands. Thus, there was no other manoeuvers from London other than accepting more devolution for the sake of strong unity.
Close to a ‘highly decentralized’ form of government, the politico-administrative system of UK is quite complex to elaborate in a short post. However, the next step to be taken after the referendum has mostly interested this article. The UK Prime Minister David Cameron has announced more devolution regarding taxes and welfare management. He stated that “we now have a chance — a great opportunity — to change the way the British people are governed, and change it for the better“. The decision comes as a response over the demand of a large number of Scottish people who voted for Yes. The final count of the Scottish referendum expressed that 44.7% of the 85 % of eligible voters have casted on YES.
Cameron (UK PM) & Salmond (Leader of Scotland)
The more competences on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be devolved, the more appropriate legislation will be undertaken to fit the former. The message of the Prime Minister David Cameron sounds as leading the UK government to federalism, commentators including myself have noticed. As the reader can imagine, the response came in as much as quick to respond to the population’s willingness who casted their vote to Yes while it can be interpreted as responding to claims of those who seemingly have failed. The announcement is seen as a requirement to unify and keeping the UK stronger. Hence, devolving more competences to entities can contribute to enhance unity by making them widely responsible of their own affairs.
The response over Scotland case is an interesting example that DRC would refer to for the future of country’s cohesion and unity. The point made here is about making local entities as well as provinces in DRC more responsible and viable. Unfortunately, the current political mood in the former Zaire looks leading to backslide and more centralized. The reason is concentrating power remains the way rulers can have control over individual and resources. It seems as erroneously interpreted when rulers think that being quiet expresses consent. There might be well grounded grieves that can remain hidden due the terror environment. The blog always think that Congolese are human being who express their wishes by means on their hands, ‘reponse du berger à la bergère’. Rulers would be advised to dig deep in terms of understanding what all these confrontations mean in claiming the improvement of socio-economic conditions of ordinary citizen.
Though sharing much in common such as similarities in terms of culture, language and high level of standard living, the reasons of some Scottish to claiming independence are mostly related to the evolution of how UK has been formed over time. Those wishing to get Scotland independent claims that full decision will be made over political affairs of their nation. In addition, nuclear disarmament (control over defense and foreign policy); financial benefits from Scottish oil and gas; renewable energy; culture reawakening and influence within international fora-organizations are mostly cited by the supporters of independence. These reasons of supporters of independence are also opposed by those in favor of the union. Those favoring union claim that within the UK family, Scotland is economically strong as independence would require taxes increase to match public spending. And of course, other convincing points in favor of the union during the globalization era.
4 countries forming the UK
If UK decided to establish federalism, it would be the nth State deciding to join the group of Countries who have chosen overlapping jurisdictions. That is, federalism gives each level of jurisdiction to have its own judicial, legislature and executive powers. These countries are Argentine (2,870,400 Km2), Austria (83,871 Km2), Australia (7,629,024 Km2), Belgium (30,528 Km2), Bosnia (51,197 Km2), Brazil (8,515,767 Km2), Canada (9,984,670Km2), Comoros (2,034Km2), Ethiopia (1,104,300Km2), Germany (357,168 Km2), India (3,287,590 Km2), Malaysia (329,847 Km2), Mexico (1,972,550 Km2), Micronesia (2,700 Km2), Nepal (147,181 Km2), Nigeria (923,768 Km2), Pakistan (796,095 Km2), Russia (17,098,242 Km2), Spain (504,645 Km2), Switzerland (41,285 Km2), Arab United Emirates (83,600 Km2), United States (9,629,091 Km2), and Venezuela (916,445 Km2)[1]. The list of these countries shows that federal States represent 40% of the world population as well as 49% of the world surface area. Therefore, federalism has to be seen as being among the largest political systems running the world.
The history of federalism seems to have evolved from fitting socio-cultural diversities within public affairs and governance. Though these countries mentioned above implement differently federalism to fit the socio-cultural diversities and to some extent largeness of countries; it is recognized to the political system of creating a room in which these specificities are likely integrated into respective states. Additionally, it is worthwhile to notice that some of these federal countries are roughly safe and can provide easily services to their citizens. However, some of them are still lagging behind regardless of having implemented federalism that makes regions and communities to manage their affairs. Hence, federalism wouldn’t ever sound as entering in safeguarded fence, where nothing can harm (if this type of fence has ever existed). Nonetheless, it would be hard to express that the federal system is held responsible of lagging behind. By contrary, the reader would rather question of what would have happened if these currently federal countries had remained centralized. As matter of fact, most of these countries went through centralized political system which they found as not appropriate for them.
The preference of federalism over centralized or something close to this is motivated by the fact of avoiding nepotism within the public sphere, specifically in the wake of different initiatives aiming to stabilizing the then Zaire. In any case, moving forward requires huge sacrifices to the extent there must a need of blazing a trial. However, in the context of DRC, federalism remains the appropriate one based on socio-cultural diversities that displays the country as well its largeness. The time we spent on chanting Mobutu slogans or shooting and killing each other would probably be recovered by establishing an adapted politico-administrative system. Moreover, it has to be honestly implemented by recognizing the failure of the past.
[1] Some documents do consider South-African Republic as a federal state. The reader can check if South-Africa implements on one or another type of federalism.
Il nous avait toujours prévenus qu’après lui c’est le déluge ! Malheureusement, ce déluge nous l’avons vécu, le vivons et le vivrons si… Si ma mémoire ne m’abuse pas, le Marechal était un bon prophète qu’un bon dirigeant. Ses prophéties ne se réaliseraient pas comme ce fut du temps biblique de Noé. La simple différence est que pendant ces anciens temps, si jamais cela a existé comme je le crois, le déluge trouvant son origine dans le comportement d’un grand nombre de personnes qui n’obéit pas aux valeurs divines. Alors que du temps de Mobutu, ce fut à la classe politique moins soucieuse de sa population, plus particulièrement à lui Mobutu qu’on peut imputer l’origine de ces malheurs. Quelles que soient ses réalisations maigres, il a fallu que Mobutu continue sous le nom de la stabilité. Est-il possible que ce scénario revienne encore une fois aujourd’hui ?
La force militaire, l’appui des occidentaux, Américains, Français et Belges spécialement, notre légèreté ont fait que Mobutu régner les 32 années sans que le monde se soucie de l’avenir des Zaïrois. Les relations entre Mobutu et l’occident mais aussi avec Bruxelles étaient entre Etats d’une part et l’individu président d’autre part. Devant les enjeux de la guerre froide, l’ancienne métropole avait opté de soutenir à corps et à cri la dictature et le monopole du pouvoir de Mobutu. Paradoxalement, à l’indépendance du Congo-Belge certains mercenaires belges, pour des raisons moins claires, avaient soutenu Moise Tshombe dans ses ambitions séparatistes du Katanga ou soit visant à étendre son autonomie. Du coup, sous peut-être pression, ces mercenaires qui officieusement travaillaient pour le compte de leur pays, abandonnent Tshombe qui sera finalement livré à son sort.
Bruxelles la capitale de la Belgique semble dire bas ce qu’elle aurait dû dire haut. Alors que les relations entre les deux pays, Belgique-RDC dure de presque un siècle et demi ; ces relations renferment toujours de zones privées que l’ancienne métropole ne veut encore pas partager à Kinshasa. Reconnu pour ses capacités spécifiques de gérer ses diversités socio-culturelles au travers des mécanismes appropriés et pratiques, Bruxelles partage timidement son expérience à son ancienne colonie. Eviter de devenir un donneur des leçons ou peut-être de raisons liées à la complexité des crises Congolaise. Personnellement, j’ai toujours fait allusion au jugement que s’est fait Bruxelles par rapport à la maturité politique congolaise de gérer des dossiers chaud. En plus de cela, l’expérience sécessionniste des années 60 pour certaines régions et politiciens sont aussi à tenir en considération. Etrangement, devant des questions épineuses d’actualité comme les élections de 2016, le changement de la constitution… Bruxelles hésite encore de se prononcer en termes forts et clairs. Quelles sont les raisons possibles de cette attitude hésitante de Bruxelles ?
Le contexte socio-politique actuel du monde semble présager une forme de confrontation similaire à la guerre froide. Les signes précurseurs de ce que je me permets d’appeler « Compétition Froide » entre l’occident et l’Extrême-Orient laisse prédire d’effets sur la politique de l’ancien Zaïre. L’ancien Zaïre, un pays riche en ressources naturelles, il attire l’attention du monde et des forts car tous les enjeux politiques sont interconnectés avec les enjeux économiques. D’autre part, les possibles scenarios qui se dessinent à l’horizon 2016 en RDC garantissent moins la stabilité et l’unicité de ce grand pays de l’Afrique centrale. De ce fait, Bruxelles, perçue comme la voix de la Belgique et celle de l’Union Européenne en même temps, semble hésité sur l’avenir de ce pays. Elle penserait plutôt aux précautions à prendre au cas où ces échéances conduiraient au chaos.
Pour mieux comprendre cette attitude de Bruxelles craignant le chaos, le bloggeur vous présente les deux possibles scenarios de 2016. Le premier scenario est le départ de Joseph Kabila qui ouvrirait une percée à l’opposition et au parti au pouvoir de présenter des candidats présidents. Ce scenarios qui est le moins possible et moins plausible, laisse penser qu’il n’y aura pas un candidat potentiel de maintenir la ‘Stabilité-Unicité’ pour des raisons ci-après : L’opposition qui se déchire souvent est aussi moins structurée et moins organisée sur des bases idéologiques. Cette opposition pourra se retrouver avec des jeunes opposants comme porte-étendards dû à l’absence de ces anciens opposants qui certains se rallient au régime et d’autres qui s’affaiblissent pour des raisons d’âge. Bruxelles se demanderait, à mon avis, si ces opposants pourront efficacement avoir une mainmise sur les forces de sécurité qui est l’épine dorsale de régime dans le grands lacs. Il est aussi question de penser à la souplesse de cet opposant qui deviendrait président par rapport aux enjeux régionaux.
Le départ de Kabila donnerait aussi plus de chance au parti au pouvoir de trouver un candidat qui représenterait la « Majorité Présidentielle » aux élections de 2016. A mon avis, cette possibilité serait la plus préférée par Bruxelles car ce candidat gagnant bénéficierait du soutien de Joseph Kabila qui aura toujours une mainmise sur les forces de sécurité ainsi qu’aux différentes tendances dans ladite majorité. Cette possibilité présenterait des risques car nécessitant une personnalité propulsée par l’actuel président come dauphin. Si non, un compromis et consensus prendrait du temps et ouvrirait aussi des brèches/confrontations au sein du parti au pouvoir sur des bases communautaires et régionales. Il apparait presque évident que durant ces 13+5 années passe au pouvoir, les tenants du régime actuel n’ont pas prévu une alternance en préparant des personnes potentielles à cette fin. En analysant cette possibilité qui serait la plus préférée, Bruxelles se heurterait à ces difficultés car pouvant aussi conduire au même chaos.
Le deuxième scenarios, est la continuité de Joseph Kabila pour un troisième mandat ou un premier selon que les compteurs seront remis à zéro. Ce scenario qui est le plus possible et plus plausible présenterait des garanties de la ‘Stabilité-Unicité’ par l’usage de la force et corruption. Il requiert simplement d’aligner les services de sécurité pour contrer toute opposition à la révision/changement de la constitution. Bruxelles y hésiterait parce que ce scenario va à l’encontre de valeurs démocratiques que prônent l’occident et l’EU. Les possibles conséquences de l’usage des forces sont aussi à craindre car pourra ouvrir des brèches aux multiples groupes armés et mécontents du pouvoir en place. Ca va presque dans la direction d’un chaos mais Bruxelles pourra finalement adhérer à celui-ci si l’usage de la force est écarté.
Voilà pourquoi, devant ces scenarios et possibilités, Bruxelles fait usage d’un ton mesuré comme celui de Jean Pascal Labille, ministre à la coopération Belge. En visite à Kinshasa, le ministre a semblé donner conseil en interpellant qu’ « il n’est pas correct de modifier les règles du jeu pendant la partie ». Donc, après la partie, ça serait normal alors qu’il s’agisse d’articles verrouillés. Mais aussi l’homme influent sur les dossiers congolais, Didier Reynders n’a fait que conseiller au président de la Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI), l’Abbé Malumalu qu’il faudra éviter des retards aux différentes élections, les présidentielles incluses. En dehors de ces avis belges, l’UE n’a pas encore dit son mot, si je ne trompe pas ; alors que les Etats Unis ont pris un taux ferme en demandant au président actuel de ne plus se présenter en 2016.
Comme Bruxelles est le centre de décisions et d’influence sur le grand lacs d’Afrique, particulièrement le Zaïre, il est possible de penser que données en leur possession ne leur permettent pas encore de prendre une position ferme. Et paradoxalement, l’attitude de Bruxelles risque d’influencer les autres puissances car c’est à cette dernière que l’occident reconnait la maitrise des dossiers de ses anciennes colonies. Bien que Bruxelles ne peut plus décider par elle-même comme ce fut dans les années 1910-60 ; au vu d’interdépendance de dossiers d’intérêt global, Bruxelles pourra vous surprendre en soutenant le deuxième scenario sous prétexte d’éviter le chaos. Cette possibilité est à tenir en considération sur base de l’expérience des années après indépendance.
Toutefois, une chose est certaine, on n’évite pas le chaos en accumulant des situations qui engendrent les déluges dans l’avenir. Le cas du soutien de Bruxelles au régime de Mobutu est frappant pour ne plus commettre les mêmes erreurs. Il serait indispensable de réaliser que les misères et le délabrement des conditions socio-économiques du congolais ordinaire créent des douleurs. L’interdépendance et intérêts entre Etats devraient en premier lieu mettre au-devant le bien-être social sans discrimination. Même si la première responsabilité incombe au congolaises et congolais, Bruxelles ferait mieux en donnant d’avis qui vont dans le sens de mettre en place un système politico-administrative en mesure de répondre aux diversités socio-culturelles de la RDC. Tout de même, on ne sera que majeur en affrontant honnêtement ces dossiers chauds qui divisent qui sont considérés comme de tabous.
Quel est votre avis ?
The Eastern Congo Tribune 
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