One might agree that the Katumbi’s downshift is a new chapter than the other one announced few weeks ago by the former Minister of Defense around providential guys. The departure of MoiseKatumbi from the ruling partyPPRD as well as resigning as Governor of the powerful province Katanga might bring a new era in the DRC politics but also in the great lakes region. It signals as choking blow to the ruling party; while the rest may consider it as kick-off towards balanced power among key contenders of 2016 elections. Therefore, Katumbi’s decision can open the possibility of heading to the State House as it may smash his future too.
He is called the powerful Governor of Katanga to whom opinion recognizes his socio-economic achievements during the mandate as the governor in Katanga. MoiseKatumbi is likely the popular governor beyond his province to extent that he’s been considered as a role model among his colleagues. He sustaineda position of an influential member of the ruling party till few months ago; and some observers saw in Katumbi as the mainmentor of the current regime.The symptom of diverging from the incumbent president can be dated back around the story of ‘false penalties’. Consequently, his leaving within the ruling party must concern anyone watching the real politics in DRC and the functioning of PPRD in a near future.
The reader would keep in minds few things regarding the powerful man of Katanga. He is among the inner circle of influential Katangese politicians, popular within the Katanga as well as outside this province, businessman who can survive and run his agenda away of public function’s remuneration. From these characteristics, it sounds that his departure must be a game changer within the Congolese political arena. In addition, the declaration of quitting the PPRD expresses his determination to oppose the ruling party, President Joseph Kabila until one of the two goes out of the game (see the communiqué here). Subsequently, though this climate is yet considered as an in-fighting from Katangese politicians willing to preservepower exercise in the former Zaire, the Katumbi’s decision can also be harming individuals to the extent he might be the first one to be targeted.
So what the possible scenarios and steps do we expect from this departure?
- The departure of Katumbi knocks the ruling party from the inner circle and announces weakening on the first place the latter. The resignation looks as willingness to isolate President Joseph Kabila though it doesn’t automatically give a blueprint to the other side. Nevertheless, the split can also reinforce the decision-making within the ruling party to the point that it would become concentrated within a single hand. It breathes the opposition especially those waiting to take back, as matter of nostalgia, what went lost few years ago. However, the opposition could slightly benefit from the break up due to the fact that these dissidentsare unwillingly committed to join the opposition existing schemesas expected;
- The near future responses from the ruling party towards Katumbi would approximately be less violent as compared to the period approaching key elections in 2016. The reader may rather think to strategies aiming at shadowing the powerful man’s names. Thus, most of responses to his attitude could slightly be exposed to the public to the extent some of these will remain unnoticed.
- Within two to three months, informed reader can expect to see Katumbi initiating his own political party that would face challenges to get officially registered. The potential Katumbi’s political party would join the G7; making the group upgrading to Gn simply because there might be other political parties willing to adhere for positioningreasons. In the meantime, informed reader would expect to see Katumbi multiplying declarations informal contacts with influential decision-makers around the world, use all means to persuade partisans so that the time of announcing the political party everything would be arranged;
- The near future will hardly be manageable for the politicians from the Katanga region specifically for their military elites. This is a time of potentialincremental suspicionsamong politicians as well as military commanders. It’s also a time for co-opting, by both divergent groups from the Kyungu’s province, influential politicians, military leaders, opinion leaders…from other provinces.
- One would expect to see a new reshuffle within the military circle, especially military intelligence structures to get cleansed.This would target people who may be suspected to have been acquiescent with those dissidents.The reshuffle would possibly assign and appoint people due to their potential loyalty to the president Kabila.
- All these scenarios would predict the long-waited message from the incumbent president.In case the incumbent decides to run for the third or the ‘first’ term; that is where someone can expect to see the real battleground between the former allies. The realbattle would probably redefine alliances among contenders and potential presidential candidates.
I wish the battle would be a political than using violence and gunfire. In any case, the future of this country has to be thought twice to the extent that politicians would think to sustain peaceful solutions in front of this test.
Ntanyoma R. Delphin
Appui au DéveloppementIntégré&
Compte Twitter @delphino12